19 Sept · 09:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PO
🇨🇿Petr Osvald
ELO 1516
FormLWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Hrabec
JH
🇨🇿Jan Hrabec
ELO 1572
FormWWLWL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Osvald🌟Hrabec goes over total as favourite 63% (76)
Fair odds · Hrabec
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 59% · 1.69· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+56
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.