20 Sept · 23:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JS
🇨🇿Jakub Stolfa
ELO 1515
FormLWWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Pavelka
RP
🇨🇿Radim Pavelka
ELO 1560
FormWWLWW
48%
52%
🌟Stolfa covers set handicap as underdog 68% (140)
Fair odds · Pavelka
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 44% · 2.27· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+45
H2H6-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.