22 Sept · 00:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MH
🇨🇿Martin Huk
ELO 1650
FormWLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Huk
OS
🇨🇿Ondrej Svacha
ELO 1623
FormWWWWL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Svacha🌟Svacha covers set handicap as underdog 65% (147)
Fair odds · Huk
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+27
H2H55-41
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.