28 Sept · 04:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MC
🇨🇿Marek Chlebecek
ELO 1492
FormLWWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Tuma
DT
🇨🇿Daniel Tuma
ELO 1569
FormLWWLW
46%
54%
🌟Chlebecek stays under total as underdog 66% (53)
Fair odds · Tuma
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 39% · 2.55· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+77
H2H2-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.