30 Sept · 16:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JH
🇨🇿Jiri Holubec
ELO 1522
FormLLWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Simecek
JS
🇨🇿Jakub Simecek
ELO 1601
FormWLWWW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Holubec🌟Holubec covers set handicap as underdog 64% (14)
Fair odds · Simecek
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+79
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.