30 Sept · 16:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
TZ
🇨🇿Tadeas Zika
ELO 1636
FormLLWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Zika
MN
🇨🇿Matyas Navedla
ELO 1544
FormWLLWL
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Navedla🌟Navedla covers set handicap as underdog 67% (246)
Fair odds · Zika
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 56% · 1.78· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+92
H2H40-34
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+92)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (40-34)