30 Sept · 23:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MB
🇨🇿Miroslav Barta
ELO 1383
FormWLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Barta
PB
🇨🇿Pavel Berdych
ELO 1371
FormLLWWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Barta
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 36% · 2.79· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+12
H2H3-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.