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02 Oct · 17:30 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
MGMatej Grundel
🇨🇿Matej Grundel
ELO 1595
1-3Final setsWawrosz won
PWPavel Wawrosz
🇨🇿Pavel Wawrosz
ELO 1637
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Wawrosz at 51%. The actual result was Pavel Wawrosz 1-3 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Pavel Wawrosz favoured — closing 1.62
Favourite won
Total 75.5
80 points played
Over
Set handicap
Pavel Wawrosz −1.5 sets
Covered
Points handicap
Pavel Wawrosz −3.5 points
Covered
Total sets 3.5
closing 1.33
Over
Exact score
market priced 1-3 at close
5.9
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Matej Grundel is favoured to win, below means Pavel Wawrosz.

▲ Matej Grundelpre 45% → final 89%
Pavel Wawrosz ▼
Biggest swing 76 ptsGrundel recovered from 22%72 points · 5 games