6 Oct · 02:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Milan Smrcek
ELO 1500
FormLLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Smrcek
JS
🇨🇿Jan Steffan
ELO 1465
FormLWWWL
52%
48%
🌟Smrcek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 31% (29)
Fair odds · Smrcek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.80· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+35
H2H41-24
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.