7 Oct · 00:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
VP
🇨🇿Vladimir Postelt
ELO 1448
FormLWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Postelt
FB
🇨🇿Frantisek Briza
ELO 1431
FormLWWLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Postelt
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 73% · 1.37· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+17
H2H15-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.