6 Oct · 18:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇨🇿Michal Syroha
ELO 1402
FormLLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sr
VS
🇨🇿Vaclav Hruska Sr
ELO 1421
FormWLWLW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Syroha
Fair odds · Sr
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 38% · 2.66· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+19
H2H12-29
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.