5 Oct · 15:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
TN
🇨🇿Tomas Nohejl
ELO 1486
FormLWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Nohejl
VD
🇨🇿Vaclav Dolezal
ELO 1472
FormLLWWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Nohejl
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.19· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+14
H2H3-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.