8 Oct · 23:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JH
🇨🇿Jan Hrabec
ELO 1585
FormWWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Hrabec
MV
🇨🇿Marek Volny
ELO 1558
FormWLLWL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Volny🌟Volny covers set handicap as underdog 62% (40)
Fair odds · Hrabec
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~73 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+27
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.