10 Oct · 20:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DM
🇨🇿David Mikula
ELO 1420
FormWLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Mikula
ZZ
🇨🇿Zbynek Zientek
ELO 1389
FormLWLLW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Zientek🌟Zientek covers set handicap as underdog 66% (169)
Fair odds · Mikula
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H9-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.