10 Oct · 22:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇨🇿Milan Kolar
ELO 1473
FormLWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kolar
FB
🇨🇿Frantisek Briza
ELO 1414
FormWWLLL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Briza
Fair odds · Kolar
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 61% · 1.64· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+59
H2H88-52
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.