10 Oct · 22:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JP
🇨🇿Jaroslav Peter
ELO 1402
FormLLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Mikula
DM
🇨🇿David Mikula
ELO 1420
FormWLWLL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Peter
Fair odds · Mikula
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+18
H2H0-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.