10 Oct · 22:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RP
🇨🇿Robin Pacha
ELO 1615
FormWLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sopko
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sopko
ELO 1639
FormWLWWW
49%
51%
🌟Sopko stays under total as favourite 64% (53)
Fair odds · Sopko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~73 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+24
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.