11 Oct · 11:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Milan Smesny
ELO 1357
FormLWWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Smesny
JH
🇨🇿Jiri Hyrsl
ELO 1281
FormWLWWL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Smesny
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 44% · 2.27· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~73 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+76
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.