12 Oct · 15:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Miroslav Svedik
ELO 1430
FormWWWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Novotny
JN
🇨🇿Jaroslav Novotny
ELO 1463
FormWLWLL
48%
52%
🌟Svedik rarely covers set handicap as underdog 18% (17)
Fair odds · Novotny
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.