14 Oct · 05:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SK
🇨🇿Sebastian Kasnik
ELO 1551
FormWWWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Skakal
MS
🇨🇿Martin Skakal
ELO 1607
FormWWWLL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kasnik
Fair odds · Skakal
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.84· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+56
H2H5-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.