14 Oct · 23:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OC
🇨🇿Ondrej Cmerda
ELO 1559
FormWWWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Zahradnik
TZ
🇨🇿Tomas Zahradnik
ELO 1592
FormWWLLW
48%
52%
🌟Cmerda covers set handicap as underdog 62% (24)
Fair odds · Zahradnik
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~73 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H16-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.