14 Oct · 23:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MC
🇨🇿Marek Chlebecek
ELO 1538
FormWWWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Bittner
MB
🇨🇿Martin Bittner
ELO 1539
FormWWLWW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Bittner
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 50% · 2.01· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+1
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.