19 Oct · 15:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
CH
🇨🇿Cesta Havrda
ELO 1304
FormWWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Havrda
J1
🇨🇿Jaroslav Strnad 1961
ELO 1277
FormWLWWL
51%
49%
🌟1961 stays under total as underdog 66% (120)
Fair odds · Havrda
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~72 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+27
H2H35-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.