19 Oct · 15:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JT
🇨🇿Josef Toth
ELO 1363
FormWWLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Toth
AK
🇨🇿Alois Kanak
ELO 1320
FormWLWLL
52%
48%
🌟Toth rarely covers set handicap as favourite 22% (27)
Fair odds · Toth
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+43
H2H9-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.