26 Oct · 01:00 MEZLow · Slight Edge
ZB
🇨🇿Zdenek Bilek
ELO 1667
FormLLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Mares
EM
🇨🇿Erik Mares
ELO 1708
FormLWWLL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Bilek🌟Mares rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (329)
Fair odds · Mares
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~80 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+41
H2H56-39
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.