26 Oct · 00:30 MEZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Martin Stefek
ELO 1445
FormLLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Dolezal
VD
🇨🇿Vaclav Dolezal
ELO 1497
FormWWLWL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Dolezal
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 64% · 1.56· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+52
H2H48-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.