4 Nov · 10:30 MEZLow · Slight Edge
TD
🇨🇿Tomas Dousek
ELO 1623
FormLLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Dousek
MN
🇨🇿Matyas Navedla
ELO 1591
FormWLWLW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Navedla🌟Navedla covers set handicap as underdog 67% (314)
Fair odds · Dousek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H19-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.