4 Nov · 09:00 MEZMedium · Model Lean
JS
🇨🇿Jan Simecek
ELO 1576
FormLLLLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Ruzicka
JR
🇨🇿Jiri Ruzicka
ELO 1715
FormLWWWW
43%
57%
Fair odds · Ruzicka
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 62% · 1.60· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+139
H2H21-17
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+139)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (21-17)