4 Nov · 09:00 MEZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Milan Smrcek
ELO 1482
FormWLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Fejtek
OF
🇨🇿Ondrej Fejtek
ELO 1514
FormLWWWL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Fejtek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H0-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.