4 Nov · 02:00 MEZLow · Coin Flip
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vedmoch
ELO 1530
FormLWLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Hlawatschke
AH
🇨🇿Ales Hlawatschke
ELO 1538
FormLLLWL
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Hlawatschke
Fair odds · Hlawatschke
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 47% · 2.11· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+8
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.