5 Nov · 14:00 MEZLow · Slight Edge
AS
🇨🇿Adam Svoboda
ELO 1561
FormLWWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Svoboda
JB
🇨🇿Jaroslav Bresky
ELO 1508
FormLWWWL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Svoboda
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 43% · 2.31· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+53
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.