6 Nov · 09:00 MEZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Milan Smesny
ELO 1349
FormWWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Smesny
DT
🇨🇿David Tomasch
ELO 1286
FormLLLWL
53%
47%
🌟Tomasch stays under total as underdog 63% (35)
Fair odds · Smesny
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+63
H2H7-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.