7 Nov · 08:30 MEZLow · Coin Flip
DS
🇨🇿David Szotek
ELO 1564
FormWWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Szotek
MC
🇨🇿Michal Chalupa
ELO 1551
FormWWLLL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Chalupa
Fair odds · Szotek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+13
H2H26-28
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.