7 Nov · 13:00 MEZMedium · Model Lean
JM
🇨🇿Josef Medek
ELO 1868
FormLWWWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Medek
EM
🇨🇿Erik Mares
ELO 1696
FormWWLLL
59%
41%
Fair odds · Medek
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
19%
3-0
18%
1-3
15%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+172
H2H74-39
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+172)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (74-39)