7 Nov · 13:30 MEZMedium · Model Lean
JJ
🇨🇿Jan Mecl Jr
ELO 1761
FormLWLWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Jr
JK
🇨🇿Jan Kanera
ELO 1588
FormWLLLW
59%
41%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kanera🌟Jr rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (221)
Fair odds · Jr
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~80 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
19%
3-0
18%
1-3
15%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+173
H2H59-31
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+173)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (59-31)