8 Nov · 09:30 MEZMedium · Model Lean
JP
🇨🇿Jan Pleskot
ELO 1372
FormLLLWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Barton
DB
🇨🇿David Barton
ELO 1478
FormWWLWL
44%
56%
🔥 Underdog lean · Pleskot
Fair odds · Barton
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~74 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+106
H2H4-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+106)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)