9 Nov · 12:30 MEZLow · Slight Edge
OP
🇨🇿Ondrej Paril
ELO 1652
FormWLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Paril
JP
🇨🇿Jakub Pilch
ELO 1603
FormWWWWL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Paril
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+49
H2H13-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.