9 Nov · 05:30 MEZLow · Slight Edge
JS
🇨🇿Jan Steffan
ELO 1457
FormWWLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Smrcek
MS
🇨🇿Milan Smrcek
ELO 1497
FormLWWWW
48%
52%
🌟Smrcek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 31% (72)
Fair odds · Smrcek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H46-24
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.