10 Nov · 09:00 MEZLow · Slight Edge
JG
🇨🇿Jiri Grohsgott
ELO 1295
FormLLLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Smesny
MS
🇨🇿Milan Smesny
ELO 1363
FormWWLWL
46%
54%
Fair odds · Smesny
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 34% · 2.96· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+68
H2H13-37
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.