10 Nov · 16:30 MEZLow · Slight Edge
DH
🇨🇿Denis Hofman
ELO 1545
FormWWWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Janata
TJ
🇨🇿Tomas Janata
ELO 1586
FormWLLWW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Hofman🌟Hofman covers set handicap as underdog 65% (251)
Fair odds · Janata
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+41
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.