1 Jul · 14:00 MESZ · 🎾 Bordeaux P2 2026Medium · Model Lean
GA
JB
🎾Barahona/Alfonso
ELO 1529
FormLWWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Barahona/Alfonso
MO
R
🎾Ortega/Ruiz
ELO 1491
FormLLWLW
55%
45%
Fair odds · Barahona/Alfonso
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 75% · 1.34· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Games handicap -3.5 · Barahona/Alfonso covers
Model 61%vsMarket 54%
Chance the favourite wins by more than 3.5 games — our empirical model vs the bookmaker's line. The market is usually sharper.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 29%Total ~26 games
2-0
29%
2-1
27%
1-2
23%
0-2
21%
Elo Gap+38
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.