30 Jul · 14:00 MESZ · 🎾 Pretoria P1 2026Elite · Strong Favorite
GM
LA
🎾Arruabarrena/Marchetti
ELO 1661
FormWLWLW
74%Win chancemodel fair 1.35Araujo/Gallego
SA
MG
🎾Araujo/Gallego
ELO 1827
FormLLWLL
26%
74%
Fair odds · Araujo/Gallego
Model 74% · 1.35vsMarket 88% · 1.14· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Games handicap -6.5 · Araujo/Gallego covers
Model 39%vsMarket 42%
Chance the favourite wins by more than 6.5 games — our empirical model vs the bookmaker's line. The market is usually sharper.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 45%Total ~26 games
0-2
45%
1-2
30%
2-1
15%
2-0
11%
Elo Gap+166
H2H0-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 1 reason
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+166)