30 Jun · 18:30 MESZ · 🎾 Premier Padel BordeauxLow · Coin Flip
G
AG
🎾Goñi/Alonso
ELO 1522
FormLLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Goñi/Alonso
B
G
🎾Blasco/Gutierrez
ELO 1514
FormLLWWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Goñi/Alonso
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 64% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Games handicap -2.5 · Goñi/Alonso covers
Model 48%vsMarket 54%
Chance the favourite wins by more than 2.5 games — our empirical model vs the bookmaker's line. The market is usually sharper.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 26%Total ~26 games
2-0
26%
2-1
25%
1-2
25%
0-2
24%
Elo Gap+8
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.