1 Jul · 18:10 MESZ · 🎾 Premier Padel BordeauxHigh · Clear Favorite
AC
FA
🎾Caruso/Abbate
ELO 1504
FormLWLWL
64%Win chancemodel fair 1.56Gonzalez/Campagnolo
LC
MG
🎾Gonzalez/Campagnolo
ELO 1534
FormWWLLW
36%
64%
Fair odds · Gonzalez/Campagnolo
Model 64% · 1.56vsMarket 79% · 1.26· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Games handicap -4.5 · Gonzalez/Campagnolo covers
Model 58%vsMarket 49%
Chance the favourite wins by more than 4.5 games — our empirical model vs the bookmaker's line. The market is usually sharper.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~26 games
0-2
35%
1-2
29%
2-1
20%
2-0
16%
Elo Gap+30
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.