2 Jul · 13:00 MESZ · 🎾 Premier Padel BordeauxLow · Coin Flip
FS
MY
🎾Stupaczuk/Yanguas
ELO 1584
FormLWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Stupaczuk/Yanguas
AC
TL
🎾Libaak/Chozas
ELO 1581
FormWLWLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Stupaczuk/Yanguas
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 79% · 1.26· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Games handicap -4.5 · Stupaczuk/Yanguas covers
Model 39%vsMarket 50%
Chance the favourite wins by more than 4.5 games — our empirical model vs the bookmaker's line. The market is usually sharper.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 26%Total ~26 games
2-0
26%
2-1
25%
1-2
25%
0-2
24%
Elo Gap+3
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.