2 Jul · 18:30 MESZ · 🎾 Premier Padel BordeauxMedium · Model Lean
EA
AG
🎾Alonso/Goñi
ELO 1527
FormWLLWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Campagnolo/Gonzalez
LC
MG
🎾Campagnolo/Gonzalez
ELO 1539
FormWWWLL
44%
56%
Fair odds · Campagnolo/Gonzalez
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 58% · 1.71· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Games handicap -2.5 · Campagnolo/Gonzalez covers
Model 69%vsMarket 49%
Chance the favourite wins by more than 2.5 games — our empirical model vs the bookmaker's line. The market is usually sharper.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 29%Total ~26 games
0-2
29%
1-2
27%
2-1
23%
2-0
21%
Elo Gap+12
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.