3 Jul · 13:30 MESZ · 🎾 Premier Padel BordeauxHigh · Clear Favorite
FS
MY
🎾Yanguas/Stupaczuk
ELO 1590
FormWLWLW
62%Win chancemodel fair 1.61Yanguas/Stupaczuk
MA
JT
🎾Tello/Arce
ELO 1564
FormWWLWW
62%
38%
Fair odds · Yanguas/Stupaczuk
Model 62% · 1.61vsMarket 76% · 1.31· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Games handicap -4.5 · Yanguas/Stupaczuk covers
Model 59%vsMarket 44%
Chance the favourite wins by more than 4.5 games — our empirical model vs the bookmaker's line. The market is usually sharper.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~26 games
2-0
34%
2-1
28%
1-2
20%
0-2
17%
Elo Gap+26
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.