13 Jul · 16:00 MESZ · 🎾 Premier Padel MalagaLow · Slight Edge
AC
FA
🎾Caruso/Abbate
ELO 1523
FormWWWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Vilariño/Castillo
MC
NV
🎾Vilariño/Castillo
ELO 1530
FormLWWLW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Vilariño/Castillo
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Games handicap -0.5 · Vilariño/Castillo covers
Model 61%vsMarket 50%
Chance the favourite wins by more than 0.5 games — our empirical model vs the bookmaker's line. The market is usually sharper.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 27%Total ~26 games
0-2
27%
1-2
26%
2-1
24%
2-0
23%
Elo Gap+7
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.