13 Jul · 17:30 MESZ · 🎾 Premier Padel MalagaLow · Coin Flip
FM
MQ
🎾Quilez/Mouriño
ELO 1502
FormLLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Hernandez/Capra
LC
LH
🎾Hernandez/Capra
ELO 1504
FormLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Hernandez/Capra
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 64% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Games handicap -2.5 · Hernandez/Capra covers
Model 47%vsMarket 51%
Chance the favourite wins by more than 2.5 games — our empirical model vs the bookmaker's line. The market is usually sharper.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 26%Total ~26 games
0-2
26%
1-2
25%
2-1
25%
2-0
24%
Elo Gap+2
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.