14 Jul · 17:30 MESZ · 🎾 Premier Padel MalagaElite · Strong Favorite
MA
JT
🎾Tello/Arce
ELO 1573
FormLWWLW
67%Win chancemodel fair 1.49Tello/Arce
MC
NV
🎾Vilariño/Castillo
ELO 1536
FormWLWWL
67%
33%
Fair odds · Tello/Arce
Model 67% · 1.49vsMarket 86% · 1.17· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Games handicap -5.5 · Tello/Arce covers
Model 49%vsMarket 51%
Chance the favourite wins by more than 5.5 games — our empirical model vs the bookmaker's line. The market is usually sharper.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~26 games
2-0
38%
2-1
29%
1-2
18%
0-2
15%
Elo Gap+37
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.